FlEastCoastRunners

Florida East Coast Runners Race Prediction Times

Text Box: Running Race Prediction: This chart is used to predict a running race time for a distance, based on a race time at another distance, from 1500 meters to the marathon. To use the table, go down a column to find a recent race time for that distance.  Then read across that row to see predicted times at other distances. Rows are equal capability. Note that his is not a pace chart. It accounts for slowing down as the distance is increased.

Text Box: These times are calculated based on the ratio of current world records on the fast end, plus a factor for less conditioned athletes slowing down more over distance.  In using this please consider the following:
	Predictions are most accurate between similar distances, such as 5K to 10K or half marathon to marathon.
	All distances assume appropriate training.  You can't train like a miler and run your best marathon or vice versa.
	Individual results will vary.  Some of us have more speed and others more endurance.
	If you are doing specific training for a given distance, your performance at that distance may be better than predicted.  For example high school students running cross country and track will often do better than predicted in the mile during track season, though leg speed is obviously a factor too.
	Most of us will have to train very hard to actually equal even these more modest marathon times.  However, based on observed results they are at least possible.  (See note below).
Note: Most published prediction charts and calculations are based on ratios of world records at the given distances, but most are badly out of date.  They predict times that are much too fast for longer distances.  For example most other charts predict that the top twenty to thirty 5K runners in the world should all be able to run a world record in the marathon (not likely).  They also do not account for the fact that the marathon world record holder was running 140 miles per week.  Us mere mortals are not and slow down much more than most charts predict.   The chart above has corrected these deficiencies, by updating to the current world record ratios and accounting for greater slowing down for non-elite runners.  We believe it is the most accurate prediction chart or calculator anywhere.

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